3Q 2025 HDB Quarterly Report: Lowest Price Growth Since 2Q2020 Due To Softer Resale Activity Y-o-Y

SINGAPORE, 24 October 2025 – According to the Housing and Development Board (HDB)’s flash estimates, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) increased to 203.7, marking a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) rise in 3Q 2025.

The HDB RPI rose 2.9% in the first nine months of 2025 and has now registered its 23^rd consecutive quarter of growth. This is in line with ERA’s forecast of a 3-6% annual price increase by end-2025.

In 3Q 2025, a total of 7,221 HDB resale transactions were recorded, representing a marginal 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and an 11.3% decline compared to the same period last year.

With 20,792 HDB resale transactions recorded in the first nine months of 2025, the total HDB flat transactions is expected to reach the 26,000–27,000 mark by the end of 2025.

Chart 1: HDB RPI vs Number of Transactions

“The 11.3% decline in resale volume compared to a year ago may be attributed to a lower supply of MOP flats, coupled with the July BTO and SBF launches, which offered 10,209 units in highly sought-after locations such as Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah. These may have diverted buyers from the resale market,” said Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore.

“Furthermore, the private property market may have drawn some potential HDB resale buyers away, particularly those considering million-dollar flats priced around the $1.5m price range. With about 29% of all private non-landed home sales transacting within this price range, upgraders were presented with compelling alternatives. This could have helped temper the demand for higher-value resale flats, particularly those in the million-dollar segment.” 

Mature Estates continue to drive Million-Dollar Flat demand

“3Q 2025 saw a total of 472 million-dollar flats transacted - the highest quarterly figure to date. Despite this record, such transactions remained a small segment of the market, making up only 6.6% of all resale transactions.”

“In the first nine months of 2025 alone, 1,235 million-dollar flats have been sold – already surpassing the 1,035 transactions recorded for the whole of 2024.” 

“Flats in mature estates continue to make up the majority of million-dollar transactions, underscoring the strong demand for homes in more centrally located towns and those offering more extensive amenities. This is especially so, given that new BTO flats with these attributes hold Plus/Prime classifications with strict resale restrictions, which could divert people to the resale market instead.”

“Flats less than 15 years old are starting to make up a larger share of HDB million-dollar transactions. In 3Q 2025, 245 such transactions were recorded, accounting for over half of all million-dollar flat transactions.”

Table 1: Top 10 Towns with the Highest Million-Dollar Flats In 3Q 2025

“This quarter saw 11 transactions crossing the $1.5m mark, of which 10 involved flats under 15 years old. Notably, these included homes in Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah – two estates that consistently attract strong demand in the million-dollar flat segment. Coincidentally, these two residential towns have been selected as project sites for the upcoming October BTO exercise, signalling efforts to temper demand for HDB flats in these popular estates.” 

Large and Final BTO Exercise in October could have moderated resale demand

“The October 2025 BTO exercise, which just concluded, was the final BTO exercise of the year, which offered around 9,144 BTO flats across eight housing towns - the largest supply of 2025.”

“The BTO launches offered buyers the opportunity to be early movers into emerging housing precincts - such as Toa Payoh’s first housing project in Mount Pleasant, and the new Berlayar Estate at the former Keppel Club site in Bukit Merah - which forms part of the Greater Southern Waterfront development.”

“As a result, some buyers may hold off on immediate purchases in the resale market until the ballot results are released. A proportion of unsuccessful applicants are likely to return to the resale market in the months that follow.”

Rental 

“HDB rental applications have continued to edge higher, marking the highest level of approved applications since 1Q 2022. The increase in the non-landed private rental index likely redirected some tenant demand toward the more accessible HDB market.”

Closing Thoughts and Forecast

“With a reduced supply of MOP flats in 2025 – previously a key driver of price growth - we expect more moderate price growth and fewer transactions to round off the year. In the first nine months of 2025, we have seen 7,221 HDB resale applications with the resale price index rising by 3.1% since 4Q 2025.

Overall, we project resale HDB prices to rise by 3%–6%, with total HDB flat transactions reaching about 26,000–27,000 by the end of 2025.”

“With the school holiday season approaching in 4Q 2025, a period that typically sees many families travelling and a dip in resale activity, HDB transactions and prices are expected moderate slightly. Furthermore, the large-scale October BTO exercise, which offered over 9,100 flats across 8 towns, could draw some prospective buyers away from the resale market – potentially resulting in fewer transactions to close out the year.” 

“Likewise for the leasing market, we expect to see prices increasing in 2025, as the supply of MOP flats are low. Factoring in the possibility of a rise in demand for HDB rentals from price-sensitive buyers, ERA predicts that HDB rents could rise by 2% to 5% y-o-y this year.

Meanwhile, HDB flat rental volume is expected to range between 34,000 and 36,000 in 2025; this is lower than the full-year estimate of 36,000 to 38,000 for 2024, due to a decrease in the number of MOP flats.”

For media enquiries, please contact:

Lisha Rodney

Public Relations Manager, ERA Singapore

Email: [email protected]

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