Commentary on 2Q 2026 HDB Flash Estimates

According to HDB’s flash estimates, resale flat prices edged down for the second consecutive quarter running. Following the 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decline in 1Q 2026, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) slipped a further 0.3% in 2Q 2026 to 202.7. This marks its first back-to-back decline since the four consecutive quarter-over-quarter declines from 3Q 2018 to 2Q 2019.

“This is the first time in nearly seven years that HDB resale prices have softened across consecutive quarters. While it is still too early to call this a correction, the market has turned the corner, with a longer period of price stability possibly ahead,” said Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore. 

“Cooling measures such as the 15-month wait-out period for private property sellers, together with larger BTO supply, have eased pressure on resale HDB prices since the start of 2025. As such, this softening should be taken as a sign of housing policies taking effect, rather than a pullback in homebuying sentiment.”

“Barring prolonged periods of economic uncertainty, HDB prices have generally maintained a stable upward trajectory over the long term. Periods of measured cooling are therefore not unusual and actually help to take some heat out of the resale segment.”

Quarterly HDB Resale Volumes Held Up Despite Seasonal Factors

In 2Q 2026, a total of 6,268 HDB resale flats were transacted, dipping slightly by only 0.3% from the 6,285 units recorded in 1Q 2026. However, the total resale volume for 1H 2026 is 12,553 units, 8.3% lower year-over-year than the 13,692 units sold in 1H 2025. 

“Despite factors such as June’s BTO exercise and yearly school holidays, which usually dampen resale activity, transactions still held steady on the quarter. This may have been driven by the significantly larger MOP supply this year, which has nearly doubled the number of units entering the resale pipeline. A total of 13,480 units are set to reach MOP in 2026, 93.3 per cent more than the 6,973 units in 2025.”

“With this fresh and attractive supply available, resale HDB activity has naturally picked up. These younger MOP flats, with over 90 years of lease remaining, are highly sought-after as they offer buyers ‘new’ homes without the three- to five-year wait.  Their appeal is further supported by their location in popular mature estates, such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown, which rank among the towns with the largest MOP supply this year.”

“Alongside greater choice in the resale market, softer resale prices may also have encouraged buyers to act this quarter.”

Uptick in Million-Dollar Flat Transactions Persists, But Prices Remain Affordable Overall 

In 2Q 2026, a further 491 million-dollar flat transactions were recorded up to 30 June 2026, according to HDB resale transaction data. This brings 1H 2026’s tally of million-dollar flat transactions to 902 deals, surpassing the 763 recorded in 1H 2025.

 “While million-dollar HDB transactions have risen, they account for only approximately 7.9% of total resale transactions in the quarter. The broader market remains anchored by more affordable price segments, with homes priced below $750,000 accounting for about 71.1% of quarterly transactions.”

“Mature towns continued to dominate million-dollar HDB transactions, led by Toa Payoh with 66 deals, followed closely by Bukit Merah and Queenstown with 65 and 64 deals respectively.”

“Notably, Toa Payoh and Queenstown are also among the towns with the largest MOP supply this year, with 1,594 and 2,405 flats respectively. The availability of newer flats with stronger price potential likely helped support more million-dollar transactions in these towns.”

ERA’s Outlook and Forecast for 2026

“Singapore’s residential market has held up well despite broader external headwinds. Housing demand remains supported by Singapore’s steady domestic growth outlook, with full-year GDP growth expected to hold steady between 2.0 and 4.0 per cent, per MTI estimates. However, global inflationary pressures and increasing caution in the job market could encourage more selectivity. Those without urgent housing needs may take a wait-and-see approach, especially if resale prices continue to soften.”

“Non-urgent buyers prioritising affordability may also pivot toward the BTO market, especially with popular locations being offered. The upcoming October BTO exercise, the largest of the year, will feature 7,970 units across six locations, including standout projects at Toa Payoh West and Bayshore.”

“In 2026, we expect the HDB resale market to see around 26,000 to 27,000 transactions, with annual price growth ranging between 2% and 5%. These outcomes would align with the Singapore government’s aim for a stable and sustainable property market.”