Commentary on the Removal of the 15-Month Wait-Out Period

Moderation in HDB RPI; Increase in MOP Supply as Key Factors Behind Policy Change

There has been much discussion surrounding the possible removal of the 15-month wait-out period. The 15-month wait-out period was introduced in September 2022 as a temporary measure to moderate demand during a period of sharp increases in HDB resale price. Its removal comes as market conditions have become more balanced, following two consecutive quarterly declines in the HDB Resale Price Index and an increase in the number of flats expected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) over the next few years.

This decline in RPI follows five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth observed from 4Q 2024 to 4Q 2025. The tangible cooling of the market could have been a key reason that the government has reconsidered and eventually removed the 15-month wait-out period.

“The removal of the 15-month wait-out period is a measured response to a more balanced HDB resale market. It gives private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while the larger pipeline of flats reaching MOP should help the market absorb the additional demand and preserve overall market stability,” said Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer, ERA Singapore.

Additionally, the uptick in the annual supply of MOP flats in 2026 to 2028, compared with the lower supply in 2024 and 2025 should provide a healthy balance and stock of MOP flats that can cater to first-time homebuyers, PPOs and ex-PPOs alike.

Chart 1: Number of MOP Flats by year (2024 – 2028)

Source: Data.gov.sg, HDB, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

In 2024 and 2025, MOP flat supply has fallen below the 5-year average. This can be attributed to fewer completions of BTO flats during the lockdown period of the COVID-19 pandemic, due to construction delays. However, with completions picking up post-pandemic, subsequent MOP flat supply has seen a significant increase starting from 2026 and is set to reach approximately 21,393 flats in 2028, well over three-times the supply in 2025.

The increase in flats reaching MOP will broaden the potential pool of homes eligible for resale, although the impact may not be felt immediately because some owners may take some time to deliberate. Together with the sustained supply of BTO flats, this should give the market greater capacity to accommodate incremental demand from PPOs and ex-PPOs.

The healthy supply pipeline of MOP flats, coupled with the moderation in HDB resale prices over the past two years has shown that there will be ample supply in the resale market to accommodate to first-time homebuyers and PPOs/ex-PPOs alike. Therefore,  the Government may have assessed that it is feasible for the 15-month wait-out period to be removed.

How Does the System Work for PPOs/ex-PPOs Looking to Enter the HDB Market Now?

The policy change allows eligible PPOs to purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat without first serving a 15-month wait-out period. Existing PPOs must dispose of all private residential property interests in Singapore and overseas within six months after completing the HDB resale purchase.

PPOs or ex-PPOs interested to purchase a HDB resale flat will be required to first obtain an HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter – much like first-time resale flat buyers.

For PPOs and ex-PPOs who wish to purchase a subsidised HDB flat (i.e. a new (BTO) flat from HDB with or without housing grants, or a resale flat with housing grants), an Executive Condominium unit from a property developer, or intend to obtain an HDB housing loan for their flat purchase, the existing requirement to wait out a period of 30 months after the disposal of their private residential property remains unchanged.

Closing Thoughts and Comments

“We view the removal of the 15-month wait-out period as a measured policy recalibration that gives private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while retaining the safeguards governing subsidised public housing,” adds Lim.

We also expect the change to unlock some pent-up demand, particularly for larger, newer and well-located resale flats. While this may support selected market segments, the increase in flats reaching MOP should help the market absorb the additional demand and maintain an overall balance between buyers and sellers. ERA therefore maintains its forecast of approximately 26,000 to 27,000 HDB resale transactions in 2026.

The greater flexibility may also facilitate smoother movement across the housing ladder, potentially releasing more private resale homes when affected owners dispose of their existing properties. However, these transactions will require careful coordination of HFE applications, financing, sale proceeds and completion timelines. Property agents can support households in managing this transition and identifying homes that meet their longer-term housing, financial and retirement needs.