1Q 2026 HDB Quarterly Report: Demand for Resale Flats Holds Firm as Prices Moderate

Figures are based off the official flash estimates for HDB quarterly statistics, released on 1 April 2026. Other supplementary data based on data.gov.sg as of 30 March 2026.

In 1Q 2026, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) moderated 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 203.4, down from 4Q 2025’s figure of 203.6. Simultaneously, a total of 6,179 resale transactions were registered over the quarter, representing an 17.6% q-o-q increase over the 5,256 cases recorded in 4Q 2025. 

RPI Falls for the First Time in Nearly Seven Years

The RPI moderated for the first time in nearly seven years since 2Q 2019, dipping to 203.4 in 1Q 2026. This performance follows the trend of slowing price growth observed last year, amid ample Build-to-Order (BTO) supply and a steady pipeline of resale flats entering the market. 

Chart 1: HDB RPI vs Number of Transactions 

Increase in HDB Resale Transactions Coincides with Quieter BTO Exercise 

In 1Q 2026, a total of 6,179 HDB resale flats were transacted, reflecting a 17.6% q-o-q increase from the 5,256 units recorded in 4Q 2025. This increase in resale activity coincided with a quieter BTO exercise in February 2026, which attracted 15,044 applicants for 4,692 flats. Similarly, BTO demand may have been tempered by the announcement of attractive projects in June 2026, including the first new HDB flats in Upper Thomson in over 40 years.

Resale supply is also expected to increase in 2026, with the number of HDB flats completing their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) nearly doubling from an 11-year low of 6,973 units in 2025 to 13,480 units this year. This might have drawn more buyers towards the resale segment as well in 1Q 2026, especially those seeking immediate housing options.

Sharp Increase in MOP Flats Anticipated in 2026

With 13,480 HDB flats fulfilling their MOP in 2026, this puts pipeline supply for the HDB resale market at its highest since 2023. Moreover, this figure represents a significant 93.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase from the 6,973 units recorded for 2025. 

With this sharp rebound in MOP flat volume, buyers targeting a resale HDB flat may benefit from a broader range of available units and possibly less intense competition this year. This increase in MOP supply, alongside a steady BTO pipeline, is also expected to support more balanced market conditions over the medium term.

Chart 2: Number of MOP Flats by year

Table 1: Distribution of MOP Flats by Town in 2025

Among flats exiting their MOP in 2026, approximately 69.3% of them are located in popular towns, such as Punggol, Tampines, Toa Payoh and Queenstown. This may allow them to command higher asking prices due to their attractive locations and long remaining leases. These newly-MOP flats are also popular among buyers, since they are not subject to the more stringent resale restrictions under the new “Plus” and “Prime” classification. 

Uptick in Million-Dollar Flat Transactions Persists

In 1Q 2026, a further 402 million-dollar flat transactions were recorded up to 30 March 2026. 

Nonetheless, the HDB resale market remains affordable, with the majority of transactions (70.8%) taking place below the $750,000 mark in the quarter. Additionally, million-dollar flat sales made up only 6.9% of all transactions observed in 1Q 2026. 

Chart 3: HDB Flat Transactions over $1m 

These higher-value transactions remained concentrated in mature estates, which accounted for 90.8% of all million-dollar deals over 1Q 2026. Popular towns like Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Queenstown, and Ang Mo Kio saw the largest shares of these sales. 

This trend is expected to continue as both Toa Payoh (1,594 MOP units) and Queenstown (2,405 MOP units) are slated to receive a significant injection of new MOP flats in 2026, particularly from the Bidadari and Margaret Drive precincts.

In addition, over half (57.2% or 230 cases) of million-dollar deals in the quarter involved newer flats aged 15 years or below. This reflects ongoing demand for newer HDB homes in centrally-located, mature estates.

Overall HDB Prices Remain Affordable

Chart 4: HDB Transactions by Price Ranges

In 1Q 2026, nearly half (48.6%) of all HDB transactions fell within the $500,000 to $750,000 range, which is considered to be affordable for many local buyers. Meanwhile, 22.2% of resale HDB flats transacted during the quarter were priced between $250,000 to $500,000. 

Collectively, this indicates that the majority of HDB resale transactions (70.8%) remains affordable for the average homebuyer.

ERA’s Outlook and Forecast for 2026 

Table 2: ERA forecast of HDB Resale Market

With global stability currently being tested by the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, countries worldwide have braced for a more uncertain economic outlook. To date, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices surging past the US$100 per barrel mark, while also putting considerable pressure on energy supply chains. Should these conditions persist, higher energy costs could drive inflationary pressures and delay interest rate cuts. 

These potential outcomes could in turn encourage more deliberate decision making in Singapore’s property market. For instance, HDB homeowners may be more inclined to retain their current flats as they adopt a more cautious approach towards upgrading. Similarly, homebuyers with less urgent housing needs may lean towards purchasing a BTO flat rather than a resale unit, as they have greater flexibility to wait and evaluate prices.

At the same time, HDB has maintained its supply of 19,600 BTO flats across three sales exercises this year, including more than 4,000 Shorter Waiting Time flats with wait times of under three years. Together with the larger resale pipeline from 13,480 flats exiting their MOP in 2026, this is expected to expand options for homebuyers and sustain the moderation in flat price growth.

That said, the million-dollar flat segment could remain underpinned by the availability of newer MOP flats, particularly in established towns such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown.

In 2026, we expect the HDB resale market to see around 26,000 to 27,000 transactions, with annual price growth ranging between 2% to 5%. These outcomes would align with the Singapore government’s aim for a stable and sustainable property market.