2Q 2025 HDB Quarterly Report: HDB Prices Continue to Grow Despite Lower Demand

SINGAPORE, 1 July 2025 – According to flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB), the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) rose to 202.8 in 2Q 2025. This uptick represents a 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase.

Similar to the previous quarter, this represents a moderate increase and marks the 21st consecutive quarter of price growth. These observations also reinforce ERA Singapore’s forecast of 3% to 6% annual growth in the HDB resale market.

Separately, transaction activity in the HDB resale market fell further by 5.0% year-on-year to 6,981 units, extending the decline seen in 1Q 2025.

Chart 1: HDB RPI vs Number of Transactions

Source: HDB, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

A combination of April and May’s election season, June school holidays, and uncertainty amongst buyers contributed to this outcome. The July launch of Build-to-Order (BTO) and Sales of Balance (SBF) flats may have also drawn interest away from the HDB resale segment ahead of time.

“Due to the push back of the mid-year BTO exercise from June to July, we may only see buyers returning to the resale market in later months, “said Eugene Lim, KEO, ERA Singapore. “In total, July’s BTO exercise will see another 5,500 BTO flats and 3,000 SBF flats making their debut. This is on top of the bumper crop of over 10,000 BTO and SBF units offered in February’s exercise.”

“In July, new units will be launched in Bukit Merah, Clementi, Toa Payoh, and notably, Tampines (Simei), which will see its first BTO project in more than ten years. Another SBF exercise will also take place in July alongside the BTO launch, despite one already being held in February.”

“Moreover, October’s launch is set to see the debut of Mount Pleasant’s maiden BTO project. Mount Pleasant is viewed by some buyers as an extension of Toa Payoh, which itself is a popular location. This upcoming BTO project will comprise around 1,500 units and its completion is expected to coincide with the opening of Mount Pleasant MRT station.”

“With the ongoing headwinds and slowing economic growth, all of these compelling BTO options on the horizon, HDB buyers may take a wait-and-see approach to fully evaluate their options.”

Chart 2: HDB Transactions by Price Ranges

Source: data.gov.sg as of 24 June 2025, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

“In 2Q 2025, the number of HDB flats sold at the million-dollar mark rose by a further 10.3% q-o-q to 384 units. This also represents a 62.7% y-o-y increase from the 236 units transacted in 2Q 2024.”

“Collectively, the 1H 2025 has seen some 756 million-dollar flat transactions, compared to 1,035 transactions seen for the whole of 2024. More 4-room flats were sold for at least $1 million. Specifically, the number of such transactions rose to 165 units in 2Q 2025, up from 148 units in 1Q 2025.“

“Earlier in May, Minister Chee Hong Tat raised the possibility of relaxing or scrapping the 15-month wait-out period for private right-sizers under 55 years old. This decision will likely hinge on two key factors, the Government’s assessment of market conditions and the continued stability of resale HDB prices.”

In 2025, we will see 6,974 HDB flats fulfil their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), the lowest in 11 years since 5,301 units reached their MOP in 2014.

This has led to stress being placed on resale prices and is significantly apparent for resale flats in central locations and mature estates. But the number of MOP flats is slated to more than double in 2026, which could offer some reprieve to homebuyers by then.

Chart 3: Number of MOP Flats by year

Source: HDB as of 30 June 2025, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

Table 1: Distribution of MOP Flats by Town in 2025

Source: HDB as of 30 June 2025, ERA Research and Market Intelligence

Among the flats reaching MOP in 2025, 30% of them are in popular, centrally located housing estates such as Toa Payoh and Queenstown, which tend to command higher resale prices. They are popular among buyers, since they are not subject to the more stringent resale restrictions under the new “Plus” and “Prime” classification.

“It is also likely that changes to the rule would increase demand and prices of resale HDB flats in mature estates. This is due to their well-established amenities and transport connectivity, both of which are strong draws for right-sizers and family buyers alike.”

“Regardless, with the reduced supply of MOP flats in 2025, we should still see gentler price growth and fewer transactions in the resale HDB market for the year. We anticipate an overall 3% – 6% price growth, with 26,000 – 27,000 resale HDB flat transactions by end-2025.”

For media enquiries, please contact:

Ning Peh, Senior Marketing Communications Manager, ERA Singapore

Email: ning@era.com.sg

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